(cid:2) (cid:2) OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,//,SPi (cid:2) (cid:2) Accuracy and the Laws of Credence (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,//,SPi (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,//,SPi (cid:2) (cid:2) Accuracy and the Laws of Credence Richard Pettigrew 1 (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,//,SPi (cid:2) (cid:2) 3 GreatClarendonStreet,Oxford,OXDP, UnitedKingdom OxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford. ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship, andeducationbypublishingworldwide.Oxfordisaregisteredtrademarkof OxfordUniversityPressintheUKandincertainothercountries ©RichardPettigrew Themoralrightsoftheauthorhavebeenasserted FirstEditionpublishedin Impression: Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedin aretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withoutthe priorpermissioninwritingofOxfordUniversityPress,orasexpresslypermitted bylaw,bylicenceorundertermsagreedwiththeappropriatereprographics rightsorganization.Enquiriesconcerningreproductionoutsidethescopeofthe aboveshouldbesenttotheRightsDepartment,OxfordUniversityPress,atthe addressabove Youmustnotcirculatethisworkinanyotherform andyoumustimposethissameconditiononanyacquirer PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyOxfordUniversityPress MadisonAvenue,NewYork,NY,UnitedStatesofAmerica BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData Dataavailable LibraryofCongressControlNumber: ISBN –––– PrintedinGreatBritainby ClaysLtd,StIvesplc (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,//,SPi (cid:2) (cid:2) Tomyfamilyandmyfriends (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,//,SPi (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,//,SPi (cid:2) (cid:2) Contents Acknowledgements xi Introduction  PartI. TheaccuracyargumentforProbabilism . FromNoDroptoProbabilism  . Formulatingthedominanceprinciple  . FromDominancetoUndominatedDominance  . FromUndominatedDominancetoImmodestDominance  . FromImmodestDominancetoDeontologicalImmodestDominance  . Measuringaccuracy:existingaccounts  . Joyceonconvexity  . LeitgebandPettigrewonagreementandepistemicdilemmas  . Joyceoncoherentadmissibility  . Measuringaccuracy:anewaccount  . Additivedivergences  . Continuityandtheabsenceofjumps  . Calibrationandaccuracy  . Symmetry  . TheBronfmanobjection  . Epistemicism  . Supervaluationism  . Subjectivism  . Howson’srobustnessobjection  . TheaccuracyargumentforProbabilism  AppendixI:Themathematicalresults  I.A Characterizingtheprobabilisticcredencefunctions  I.B Characterizinglegitimateinaccuracymeasures(withoutSymmetry)  I.C Characterizinglegitimateinaccuracymeasures(withSymmetry)  I.D TwotheoremsconcerningadditiveBregmandivergences  PartII. Chance-credenceprinciples . ThePrincipalPrinciple  (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,//,SPi (cid:2) (cid:2) viii contents . Vindicationandchance  . ObjectionstoUr-ChanceInitialVindication  . IntroducingtheTemporalPrincipalPrinciple  . Beyondtheinitialcredencefunction  . AnobjectiontoCurrentChanceEvidentialVindication  .. Reductionistaccountsofchance  .. Non-reductionistaccountsofchance  . Dominanceandchance  . Adaptingtheargument  . Thecircularityobjection  . Self-underminingchances  . Self-underminingchancefunctions  . Anaccuracy-basedargumentforIsmael’sGeneralRecipe  . Anaccuracy-basedargumentfortheNewPrinciple  AppendixII:Asummaryofchance-credenceprinciples  AppendixIII:Themathematicalresults  III.A ProofofTheoremIII.A.  III.B ProofofTheorem..  III.C ProofofTheorem..  III.D ProofofTheorem..  PartIII. ThePrincipleofIndifference . MaximinandthePrincipleofIndifference  . TheArgumentfromEvidentialSupport  . TheArgumentfromMinimalInformation  . TheArgumentfromAccuracy  . Generalizingtheargument  . Epistemicriskaversion  . Languagedependence  . Hurwicz,regret,andC-maximin  . TheHurwiczcriterion  . Riskingregret  . Riskandchances  AppendixIV:Themathematicalresults  IV.A ProofofTheorem..  IV.A. ProofofTheorem..(I)  IV.A. ProofofTheorem..(II)  IV.B ProofofTheorem..  PartIV. Accuracyandupdating . PlanConditionalization  . Forward-facingargument  (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,//,SPi (cid:2) (cid:2) contents ix . Backwards-facingargument  . Neither-facingargument  . DiachronicConditionalization  . Theargumentfromthepriorstandpoint  . Theargumentfromdiachroniccontinence  AppendixV:Themathematicalresults  V.A ProofofTheorem..  V.B ProofofTheorem..  V.C ProofofTheorem..  V.D ProofofTheorem..  V.E ProofofTheorem..  V.F ProofofTheorem..  . Wherenextforepistemicutilitytheory?  . Infinitelymanycredences  . Infinitesimalcredences  . Self-locatingpropositions  . Risk-sensitivedecisionprinciples  . Measuringdegreesofincoherence  . Otherdoxasticstates  . Epistemicconsequentialism  Bibliography  Index  (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2)