The United States Army War College The United States Army War College educates and develops leaders for service at the strategic level while advancing knowledge in the global application of Landpower. The purpose of the United States Army War College is to produce graduates who are skilled critical thinkers and complex problem solvers. Concurrently, it is our duty to the U.S. Army to also act as a “think factory” for commanders and civilian leaders at the strategic level worldwide and routinely engage in discourse and debate concerning the role of ground forces in achieving national security objectives. The Strategic Studies Institute publishes national security and strategic research and analysis to influence policy debate and bridge the gap between military and academia. The Center for Strategic Leadership and Development contributes to the education of world class senior CSTERNATTEERG fIoCr LDEEAVDELEORSPHMIPEN anTd leaders, develops expert knowledge, and provides U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE solutions to strategic Army issues affecting the national security community. The Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute provides subject matter expertise, technical review, and writing expertise to agencies that develop stability operations concepts and doctrines. U.S. Army War College The Senior Leader Development and Resiliency program SLDR supports the United States Army War College’s lines of effort to educate strategic leaders and provide well-being education and support by developing self-awareness Senior Leader Development and Resiliency through leader feedback and leader resiliency. The School of Strategic Landpower develops strategic leaders by providing a strong foundation of wisdom grounded in mastery of the profession of arms, and by serving as a crucible for educating future leaders in the analysis, evaluation, and refinement of professional expertise in war, strategy, operations, national security, resource management, and responsible command. The U.S. Army Heritage and Education Center acquires, conserves, and exhibits historical materials for use to support the U.S. Army, educate an international audience, and honor Soldiers—past and present. STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S. Army War College and is the strategic-level study agent for issues related to national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrategic analysis. The mission of SSI is to use independent analysis to conduct strategic studies that develop policy recommendations on: • Strategy, planning, and policy for joint and combined employment of military forces; • Regional strategic appraisals; • The nature of land warfare; • Matters affecting the Army’s future; • The concepts, philosophy, and theory of strategy; and, • Other issues of importance to the leadership of the Army. Studies produced by civilian and military analysts concern topics having strategic implications for the Army, the Department of Defense, and the larger national security community. In addition to its studies, SSI publishes special reports on topics of special or immediate interest. These include edited proceedings of conferences and topically oriented roundtables, expanded trip reports, and quick-reaction responses to senior Army leaders. The Institute provides a valuable analytical capability within the Army to address strategic and other issues in support of Army participation in national security policy formulation. i Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press ASSESSING EGYPTIAN PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR SECURITY CRACKDOWNS IN THE SINAI Gregory Aftandilian February 2015 The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) and U.S. Army War College (USAWC) Press publications enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose classified information, jeopardize operations security, or misrepresent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empowers them to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the inter- est of furthering debate on key issues. 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ISBN 1-58487-663-8 iv FOREWORD Egypt, a pivotal country in the Middle East, is fac- ing a significant terrorism problem emanating from the strategically important Sinai Peninsula, which borders the vital Suez Canal waterway to its west and Israel and the unstable Gaza Strip to its east. Terrorist groups in the Sinai have not only attacked Egyptian security forces and foreign tourists in that region (along with periodic attacks against Israeli bor- der posts) but have taken their fight to the Egyptian mainland, which has caused anxiety among the pub- lic. The Egyptian government has used heavy-handed tactics against these terrorist groups and their sympa- thizers in the Sinai, but with mixed results. Although the level of violence has dipped since the summer of 2013, the terrorist groups continue to be active. More- over, such groups are still able to recruit disaffected Bedouin youth in the Sinai who often see no viable alternatives to joining the extremists. Helping Egypt effectively counter and defeat these terrorist groups, some of which are copying the brutal tactics of the Is- lamic State of Iraq and the Levant, is an important U.S. strategic goal. Mr. Gregory Aftandilian, a Middle East specialist and an expert on Egypt, examines the important ques- tion of Egyptian public attitudes toward the govern- ment’s security crackdowns in the Sinai. He brings to bear such public attitudes toward the Bedouin inhab- itants of the Sinai and how domestic political events in Egypt, as well as broader instability in region, have affected public attitudes toward the security policies. He also shows how instability in the Gaza Strip and conflicts between Israel and Hamas can impact Egyp- tian public attitudes toward the security crackdowns in the Sinai. v Mr. Aftandilian also provides cogent recommen- dations for U.S. civilian policymakers and U.S. Army officers in dealing with their Egyptian counterparts on this terrorism problem. He offers a comprehensive ap- proach involving both military and economic policies. The Strategic Studies Institute hopes the findings and recommendations in this monograph will be of assistance to U.S. civilian strategic planners and U.S. Army officers as they try to help Egypt to deal with its terrorism problem. DOUGLAS C. LOVELACE, JR. Director Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press vi ABOUT THE AUTHOR GREGORY AFTANDILIAN, a consultant, scholar, and lecturer, is currently an associate of the Middle East Center at the University of Massachusetts-Low- ell, an adjunct faculty member of Boston University and American University, and a Senior Fellow for the Middle East at the Center for National Policy in Washington, DC. He spent over 21 years in govern- ment service, most recently on Capitol Hill, where he was foreign policy advisor to Congressman Chris Van Hollen (2007-08), a professional staff member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and foreign policy adviser to Senator Paul Sarbanes (2000-04), and foreign policy fellow to the late Senator Edward Ken- nedy (1999). Prior to these positions, Mr. Aftandilian worked for 13 years as a Middle East analyst at the U.S. Department of State where he was a recipient of the Department’s Superior Honor Award for his analyses on Egypt and of the Intelligence Community’s Certifi- cate of Distinction. His other government experience includes analytical work for the U.S. Department of Defense and the Library of Congress. Mr. Aftandilian was also a research fellow at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University (2006-07) and an International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York (1991-92), where he wrote the book, Egypt’s Bid for Arab Leadership: Implications for U.S. Policy. He is also the author of the monographs: Looking Forward: An Integrated Strategy for Supporting Democracy and Human Rights in Egypt (2009); Presiden- tial Succession Scenarios and Their Impact on U.S.-Egyp- tian Strategic Relations (2011); and Egypt’s New Regime and the Future of the U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relationship (2013). He holds a B.A. in history from Dartmouth vii College, an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Chicago, and an M.Sc. in international relations from the London School of Economics. viii