Debunking the Retail Apocalypse Authors Lee Holman Greg Buzek August, 2017 Thank You to our Research Sponsors CONTENTS 4 6 8 13 15 18 22 27 31 Introduction Copyright 2017 IHL Group–All Rights Reserved 4 Into the Data – Some Definitions Copyright 2017 IHL Group–All Rights Reserved 5 What is the background for the negative narrative? BUSINESS MARKETING PRESENTATION SLIDES The Start of the Retail Apocalypse Narrative ➢ ➢ o o ➢ o o ➢ o o ➢Amazon Becomes the Villain o Copyright 2017 IHL Group–All Rights Reserved 7 Key Trends & Drivers ➢ Figure 2 –Retail Square Footage –Global Comparisons o o Figure 1 –Historical Fed Rates Source –Cowan Research ➢ o o o Source –Federal Reserve –Board of Governors' Copyright 2017 IHL Group–All Rights Reserved 8 Key Trends & Drivers, con’t ➢ o o o ➢ o o o Copyright 2017 IHL Group–All Rights Reserved 9 Key Trends & Drivers, con’t ➢ Figure 3 –Household Income by Quintile o 1996 2015 Real $ % Growth Income o ’96 -’15 Growth o Lowest 8,595 12,457 3,862 44.9% o o Second 21,097 32,631 11,534 54.7% o Third 35,486 56,832 21,346 60.2% o o Fourth 54,922 92,031 37,109 67.6% o Highest 115,514 202,366 86,852 75.2% o Sources: BLS, Census Bureau Historical Income Tables H1/H3 o o ➢ o o o o o Copyright 2017 IHL Group–All Rights Reserved 10