RAND Understanding the Air Force's Capability to Effectively Apply Advanced Distributed Simulation for Analysis An Interim Report Robert Kerchner, John Friel, Tom Lucas 5GL Project AIR FORCE _,,.,.,, ( 19 4 6-1996 i=-'-"" v n 3lST^UTiQ^STAtEMEOT Approved for public release; Distribution Unlimited The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-96-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Kerchner, Robert. Understanding the Air Force's capability to effectively apply advanced distributed simulation for analysis: an interim report / Robert Kerchner, John Friel, Tom Lucas, p. cm. "Project AIR FORCE." "Prepared for the United States Air Force." "MR-744-AF." Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-2410-8 (alk. paper) 1. Aeronautics, Military—United States-Data processing. 2. Electronic data processing—Distributed processing. 3. Interactive computer systems. I. Friel, John. II. Lucas, Tom, 1959- . III. United States. Air Force. IV. Project AIR FORCE (U.S.) V. Title. UG632.K47 1996 358.4'148—dc20 96-22854 CIP © Copyright 1996 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve public policy through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Published 1996 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet: [email protected] RAND Understanding the Air Force's Capability to Effectively Apply Advanced Distributed Simulation for Analysis An Interim Report Robert Kerchner, John Friel, Tom Lucas Prepared for the 50 J United States Air Force Project AIR FORCE 19 4 6-1996 19960917 035 Approved for public release; distribution unlimited - Ill PREFACE This report presents our preliminary findings and observations on how the Air Force can more effectively apply Advanced Distributed Simulation (ADS) technologies for analysis. We discussed ADS with the analysis and ADS communities, and participated in several ADS efforts, including the Synthetic Theater of War Europe (STOW-E), a Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO) technical engineering demonstration (TED), and the Airborne Laser (ABL) Test Series 7. As a result, we have identified several advantages and challenges ADS presents analysts. This report reviews several general ADS analysis issues, as well as several specific points. The emphasis of the report is on the improvements that are required in ADS in order to allow credible analysis. Note also that while our emphasis is analysis, several of these suggested improvements relate in part, or even in their entirety, to training issues. This work was done in the Model Improvement Study in the Plans and Operations Project of RAND's Project AIR FORCE. This project is sponsored by General Tom Case of AF/XOM. It should be of interest to combat analysts in all of the military departments and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. PROJECT AIR FORCE Project AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the Air Force federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and analyses. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is being performed in three programs: Strategy and Doctrine; Force Modernization and Employment; and Resource Management and System Acquisition. In 1996, Project AIR FORCE is celebrating 50 years of service to the United States Air Force. Project AIR FORCE began in March 1946 as Project RAND at Douglas Aircraft Company, under contract to the Army Air Forces. Two years later, the project became the foundation of a new, IV private nonprofit institution to improve public policy through research and analysis for the public welfare and security of the United States— what is known today as RAND. CONTENTS Preface üi Figures j_ x Tables i x Summary xiii Acknowledgments i x x Glossary -j_ xx 1. INTRODUCTION 1 What is ADS? 1 A Pragmatic Motivation for Studying ADS 2 Modeling and Simulation Resources Go to ADS 2 Training and Technology Currently Drive DIS Evolution 2 The Analysis Community Has an Interest in Influencing Future DIS Developments 3 Study Objectives and Products 4 Primary Study Obj ective 4 Focus on Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS) 4 Desired Study Products 4 2 . APPROACH 5 Investigation of Distributed Analysis Efforts and Research 5 Literature Review 5 Survey of Air Force Capabilities and Current Efforts 5 Survey of Non-Air Force Efforts 6 Identification of Distributed Analysis Techniques in the Community 6 Participation in Distributed Analysis Efforts 6 Concern: In-Depth Understanding of Problems Requires Hands-on Involvement 6 Solution: Joined ADS Projects, Took on Specific Responsibilities 6 Participation Focused on Analysis 7 Development of Strategies to Mitigate ADS Shortcomings 7 Develop Methods and Procedures to Maximize the Benefits While Mitigating the Difficulties 7 Promulgate Methods and Procedures in an "Ads Analyst's Guide" 7 3 . OBSERVATIONS FROM STOW-E 8 STOW-E Overview 8 Overall Impressions Of STOW-E 9 Major Technical Accomplishment 9 Technical Demonstration Only 9 Potential for Training and Mission Rehearsal 10 Potential for Analysis Using Results of STOW-Sized Exercises 10 Improvements Required 11 Improvements Required for Simulator Fidelity 11 Improvements Required to Computer-Generated Forces 13 Improvements Required for Exercise Discipline 16 Improvements Required for Stealths 17 Improvements Required for Network Reliability 19 Improvements Required for DIS Maturity 20 Improvements Required for Complexity of Exercise Logistics .. 21 Improvements Required for Ability to Assess Training Benefit 23 4 . OBSERVATIONS FROM OTHER ACTIVITIES 25 The BMDO Technical Engineering Demonstration 25 High-Level Observations of TED 26 Problems Affecting BMDO TED Analysis 27 Suggested Improvements Based on BMDO TED Experiences 28 Airborne Laser (ABL) Test 7 30 Overview 3 0 Observations 30 Warbreaker 32 DIS Interoperability Working Groups 33 Computer-Generated Forces (CGFs) 34 W&A of Distributed Simulations 34 Credible Analysis Special Interest Groups 34 The Anti-armor Advanced Technical Demonstration 35 Overview 35 Observations 35 Theater Battle Arena 3 6 5. OBSERVATIONS AND THOUGHTS ON USING ADS FOR ANALYSIS 38 ADS/DIS Advantages and Challenges 38 Potential Advantages for Analysis with Distributed Models ... 38 Challenges for Analysis with Distributed Environments 41 How to Use ADS for Analysis: A Proposal 45 HIL Experiments and ADS 45 Vision: DIS as Part of an Iterative and Cooperative Process Across Communities . 47 6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 49 Study Conclusions 49 ADS/DIS Has Potential To Supplement/Complement Other Analysis and Training Methods 49 Many Improvements Are Required To Realize Air Force Potential 49 The Current Focus Is on Demonstrating Technology 49 ADS Has Potential for Air Force Training and Rehearsal 50 Recommendations 51 Air Force Should Develop ADS Investment Strategies 51 Analysis and Training Strategies Should Be Emphasized in Developing Future ADS Plans 51 Automated Tools and Procedures That Assist in Managing ADS Efforts Should Be Aggressively Developed 51 Recommendations That Can Be Implemented for Each Exercise ... 52 Future Research Directions 53 Air Force Investment Plan for ADS 54 ADS Analyst' s Guide 55 VI1 - Appendix A. THE IMPACT OF NETWORK LATENCIES 57 B. ABL CASE MATRIX FOR VIRTUAL RETROGRADE EXPERIMENTS 62 Bibliography 65