SSttrraatteeggiicc DDeecciissiioonn SSuuppppoorrtt MMooddeelllliinngg wwiitthh MMoorrpphhoollooggiiccaall AAnnaallyyssiiss FOI –1995-2005 Fritz Zwicky 1898-1974 Professor of Astronomy (1942-1968) California Institute of Technology Co-founder of Aerojet Engineering President of ”International Academy of Astronautics” - Discovered evidence for ”dark matter” in galaxies (1933) - Triple-hypothesis: supernova, neutron stars & cosmic rays(1934) - Galaxies and galaxy clusters act as gravitational lens (1937) - Developed morphological analysis as a general method for non-quantified modelling using a ”morphological field” “Wicked problems” H. Rittel & W. Melvin (1973). "Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning“, Policy Sciences 4, Elsevier Scientific Publishing, Amsterdam, pp. 155-169. “Social messes” Russel Ackoff: (1974). Redesigning the Future, Wiley. WWhhaatt’’ss tthhee pprroobblleemm ?? Mess = Complex issue which is not well formulated or defined. (“Wicked problems”) Problem = Well formulated/defined issue, but with no single, clear-cut solution (various solutions depending on…) = Well defined problem with a Puzzle specific solution which can be worked out. RusselAckoff: Re-designing the Future, 1974 “One of the greatest mistakes that can be made when dealing with a mess is to carve off part of the mess, treat it as a problem and then solve it as a puzzle - - ignoring its links with other aspects of the mess.” (Pidd, M: Tools for Thinking,1996) MMoorrpphhoollooggiiccaall AAnnaallyyssiiss:: A GENERALISED METHOD FOR STRUCTURING AND ANALYSING COMPLEX PROBLEM FIELDS WHICH: ARE INHERENTLY NON-QUANTIFIABLE (cid:122) CONTAIN NON-RESOLVABLE UNCERTAINTIES (cid:122) CANNOT BE CAUSALLY MODELLED OR (cid:122) SIMULATED REQUIRE A JUDGMENTAL APPROACH (cid:122) FFoorr WWhhaatt ?? LONG-TERM PLANNING and STRATEGY EVALUATION • DEVELOPING SCENARIO MODELLING LABORATORIES • STRUCTURING AND ANALYSING COMPLEX POLICY SPACES • RELATING ENDS & MEANS IN STRATEGIC PLANNING (Process support for decision-making) • “POSITION ANALYSIS” (STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS) PPhhiilloossoopphhyy:: THE METHOD SHOULD BE: • Group & process oriented • Generic (general method for NQM) • Transparent (No black boxes) • Traceable (”Audit trail”) • Easy to update results RReessuullttss:: • A structured (dimensioned) problem • Simple (scenario) laboratory • Complex overlay laboratory • Validated IO-model/instrument FFoorr wwhhoomm ?? SSwweeddiisshh TToottaall--DDeeffeennccee SSttrruuccttuurree • Scenarios and Strategies for Long-term Planning • Airborne Capacity* • Amphibious Brigade • Future ground target systems* • UAV Tactical Systems • Markus: The Future Ground Soldier • New Education and Training Systems for the Army • Swedish SEAD Capacity • Information Warfare Systems and Contexts (CSIR) • Instrument for Evaluating Military Exercises • Risk Analysis for UXO