Assessing Operational Flexibility in Systems with Increased Penetration of Variable Generation Aidan Tuohy, PhD Project Manager/Technical Leader, EPRI Grid Operations and Planning University of Illinois Dept of Electrical and Computing Engineering Feb 22, 2015 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Grid Operations, Planning & Integration Area Grid Operations & Information & Comm. Planning Technologies Transmission & Subs Integration of Distributed Bulk Integration Variable Renewables Generation P162 HVDC PS-D HVDC Planning PS-A Modeling/Simulation 2 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Bulk Renewable Integration R&D Focus Modeling & Variability & System Control Center Protection Flexibility Vt (pu)0.96 MFiettaesdured 0.950 20 40 60 80 100 120 Ifd (pu) 2 Conventional Gen 1.950 20 40 60 80 100 120 2.1 Vfd (pu) 2 1.90 20 40 60 80 100 120 Emerging Flexible Resources Time (seconds) Monitoring VG Power Management Analysis Decision Support Schedule, Dispatch Voltage & Control & Reserves Frequency Control New Methods/Tools Reliable & Efficient Operation 3 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. US Installed Solar PV Source: NREL Open PV Project; Bloomberg CAISO WG Capacity = 5.8 GW PV Capacity = 8+ GW Peak Load = 48 GW ERCOT WG Capacity = 11.2 GW PV Capacity = 250 MW Peak Load = 56 GW HECO WG Capacity = 100 MW Total US: 16 GW PV Capacity = 254 MW 2014 Install Est.: 6.5 GW Peak Load = 1200 MW 4 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. How much PV and Wind Is Possible? DOE SunShot Initiative Scenarios… Source: NREL, “Sensitivity of Rooftop PV Projections in the SunShot Vision Study to Market Assumptions” Optimistic, but policy objective PV assumptions, leads to Rooftop PV of 120 GW in 2030 & 240 GW in 2050. 5 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Wind & PV Variability/Uncertainty Increases the Need for System Flexibility • It’s the Wind Ramp, Not the Ripple! • Forecasting Is Key • System must have ramping & cycling capabilities Source: Constructed from EIRGRID online data (www.eirgrid.com). 6 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Germany - Installed Renewable Capacity versus Real Infeed Capacity since 2011 80.000 EREe Dnewable Energy MW InIsntsatlalilelerdt ECEap Dacity 70.000 Jayheraerlsy- Maviettrealg EeE 6P0.D0E00 max. RE*: 37.642MW wind: 23.574MW PV: 14.069MW 50.000 approx. 53% (14.04.2014) 40.000 30.000 H b m G 20.000 n o min. RE*: 148MW ir p m wind: 148MW A 10.000 PV: 0MW :e c approx. 0,2% (17.02.2013) ru o S 0 h-Values Source: Amprion GmbH - CIGRE Session 2014 - Opening Panel | Klaus Kleinekorte | 25th August 2014 | © Amprion 7 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. VER Integration Impacts Integration Issue Bulk Renewables Distributed Resources (Wind and Solar) (incl. rooftop PV) Scheduling & Dispatch   Reserves & Frequency   Regulation Resource Adequacy &   System Flexibility Generation Cycling &   Retirement System Voltage and   Frequency Impacts Distribution Feeder  Impacts Bulk Impacts of DER  Utility Revenue &  Business Models 8 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Ensuring Sufficient System Flexibility 9 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. The “Duck” Curve Not Just Resource Adequacy but the Adequacy of Resource of the Right Type 2.500 MW - Lunedì, 30 Agosto 2010 2.000 MW - Lunedì, 29 Agosto 2011 MW - Lunedì, 27 Agosto 2012 1.500 1.000 More upward ramping capability is required when sun goes down 500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 .0 .1 .2 .3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 Increased requirement for Need lower minimum generation downward ramping capability in levels to avoid over-generation the morning Source:ENEL –Measured Data from Southern Italy 10 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.