Successful Adaptation to Climate Change What does successful adaptation look like? This is a question we are frequently asked by planners, policy-makers, and other professionals charged with the task of developing and implementing adaptation strategies. While adaptation is increasingly recognized as an important climate risk management strategy, and on-the-ground adaptation planning activity is becoming more commonplace, there is no clear guidance as to what success would look like, what to aim for, and how to judge progress. This edited volume makes signifi cant progress toward unpacking the question of successful adaptation, offering both scientifi cally informed and practice-relevant answers from various sectors and regions of the world. It brings together 18 chapters from leading experts within the fi eld to present careful analyses of different cases and situations, questioning throughout commonly avowed truisms and unspoken assumptions that have pervaded climate adaptation science and practice to date. This book does not offer a single answer but demonstrates how the question of success, in important ways, is normative and context-specifi c. It identifi es the various dimensions of success, such as economic, political, institutional, ecological, and social, explores the tensions between them, and compiles encouraging evidence that resolutions can be found. The book appraises how climatic and non-climatic stressors play a role, what role science does and can play in adaptation decision-making, and how trade-offs and other concerns and priorities shape adaptation planning and implementation on the ground. This timely interdisciplinary text sheds light on key issues that arise in on-the-ground adaptation to climate change. It bridges the gap between science and practical application of successful adaptation strategies and will be of interest to students, academics, and practitioners. Susanne C. Moser is Director of Susanne Moser Research & Consulting and a Social Science Research Fellow at Stanford’s Woods Institute for the Environment. She is an internationally recognized expert on adaptation, vulnerability, and resilience; climate change communication for social change; and science–policy interactions. Maxwell T. Boykoff is an Assistant Professor and Fellow in the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and Environmental Studies at the University of Colorado. Max is also a Senior Visiting Research Associate in the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford. “This is a great book. It demonstrates clearly that success is contingent on getting the rules, incentives and attitudes right. The book engages in all the right ways: with evidence, rigour, refl exivity, and a sense of geography and the lived reality of climate change.” Neil Adger, University of Exeter, UK “City leaders are searching for solutions to the massive economic, infrastructure, and health challenges arising from climate change. What they need are solutions that strengthen their communities’ resilience – their ability to recover and bounce back from extreme weather. Susanne C. Moser and Maxwell T. Boykoff offer a critical resource with the contribution of Successful Adaptation to Climate Change.” Michael Schmitz, Executive Director, ICLEI–Local Governments for Sustainability USA Successful Adaptation to Climate Change Linking science and policy in a rapidly changing world Edited by Susanne C. Moser and Maxwell T. Boykoff First published 2013 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2013 selection and editorial matter: Susanne C. Moser, Maxwell T. Boykoff; individual chapters: the contributors The right of the editors to be identifi ed as the authors of the editorial material, and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted by them in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identifi cation and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Successful adaptation in climate change / [edited by] Susanne C. Moser, Maxwell T. Boykoff. pages cm Includes index. 1. Climatic changes–Effect of human beings on. 2. Climatic changes–Social aspects. 3. Human ecology. I. Moser, Susanne C. II. Boykoff, Maxwell T. QC903.S88 2013 363.738ʹ744–dc23 2012044487 ISBN: 978-0-415-52499-5 (hbk) ISBN: 978-0-415-52500-8 (pbk) ISBN: 978-0-203-59388-2 (ebk) Typeset in Times New Roman by Refi neCatch Limited, Bungay, Suffolk Contents List of fi gures viii List of tables ix Notes on contributors x List of acronyms xviii Preface xxi 1 Climate change and adaptation success: the scope of the challenge 1 SUSANNE C. MOSER AND MAXWELL T. BOYKOFF PART I Changing goals, trade-offs, and synergies 35 2 Reducing the risk of maladaptation in response to sea-level rise and urban water scarcity 37 JON BARNETT, SAFFRON O’NEILL, STEVE WALLER, AND SARAH ROGERS 3 Biodiversity conservation for a climate-altered future 50 BRUCE A. STEIN AND M. REBECCA SHAW 4 Climate adaptation, moral reparation, and the baseline problem 67 BENJAMIN HALE, ADAM PÉROU HERMANS, AND ALEXANDER LEE 5 REDD+ and social justice: adaptation by way of mitigation? 81 HEIKE SCHROEDER AND CHUKWUMERIJE OKEREKE vi Contents PART II Institutional arrangements, interplay, and alignment 95 6 Institutions as key element to successful climate adaptation processes: results from the San Francisco Bay Area 97 JULIA A. EKSTROM AND SUSANNE C. MOSER 7 Rapid transformation of the US electric power system: prospects and impediments 114 ROGER E. KASPERSON AND BONNIE RAM 8 Towards a binding adaptation regime: three levers and two instruments 132 MIZAN R. KHAN AND J. TIMMONS ROBERTS PART III Science–practice interactions, decision support, and supporting norms 149 9 Waters, seas, and wine: science for successful climate adaptation 151 BENJAMIN L. PRESTON, LAUREN RICKARDS, SURAJE DESSAI, AND RYAN MEYER 10 Promoting adaptation success in natural resource management through decision support: lessons from the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain regions 170 LISA DILLING AND REBECCA ROMSDAHL 11 Climate risk management: laying the groundwork for successful adaptation 186 ANTHONY PATT 12 Building climate resilience: lessons of early warning in Africa 201 EMILY BOYD AND ROSALIND J. CORNFORTH 13 Engaging science and managing scientifi c uncertainty in urban climate adaptation planning 220 JOANN CARMIN AND DAVID DODMAN Contents vii PART IV Effective communication and engagement 235 14 Media coverage of discourse on adaptation: competing visions of “success” in the Indian context 237 MAXWELL T. BOYKOFF, ADITYA GHOSH, AND KANMANI VENKATESWARAN 15 Risk communication and adaptation in settlements on the coast and in deltas of the Mekong Region 253 LOUIS LEBEL, BACH TAN SINH, NGO CONG CHINH, SAKARADHORN BOONTAVEEYUWAT, AND HAM KIMKONG 16 Climate change visioning: effective processes for advancing the policy and practice of local adaptation 270 SARAH L. M. BURCH, STEPHEN R. J. SHEPPARD, ELLEN POND, AND OLAF SCHROTH PART V Motivations, identities, refl exivity, and personal change 287 17 Navigating the political and emotional terrain of adaptation: community engagement when climate change comes home 289 SUSANNE C. MOSER 18 The courage to change: adaptation from the inside-out 306 KAREN O’BRIEN Index 320 Figures 1.1 Challenges in defi ning and achieving adaptation success 10 3.1 From tactical to strategic adaptation 54 3.2 Climate-smart conservation cycle 59 4.1 Three modes of ecosystem change 71 6.1 Ideal-type stages of the adaptation decision-making process 98 6.2 Map of San Francisco Bay showing the location of the fi ve case studies 99 6.3 Frequency of different types of barriers encountered 103 6.4 Most common strategies used to overcome adaptation barriers 106 7.1 Four phases in transitions 124 9.1 Annual number of peer-reviewed publications with the topical words “climate” and “adaptation” 152 9.2 The “adaptation action cycle” 160 11.1 The four pillars of climate risk management 196 12.1 RANET as an illustration of an early warning system that is decentralized locally but globally connected 206 14.1 World newspaper coverage of climate change or global warming, 2004–2012 239 14.2 World newspaper coverage of climate change, global warming, and adaptation, 2004–2012 240 14.3 Indian newspaper coverage of climate change or global warming, 2000–2012 244 14.4 Primary and secondary frames in Indian English-speaking national newspapers, 2004–2009 247 16.1 Major trends in greenhouse gases, land use, and other variables in each of the four “World” scenarios 275 16.2 The potential spread of forest fi re in Kimberley, British Columbia 281 Tables 1.1 The failure-to-success continuum 14 3.1 Change continuum and strategic responses 56 7.1 US electricity generation by fuel (2011) 117 10.1 Decision-making context for Great Plains respondents 173 10.2 Decision-making context for Rocky Mountain respondents 174 10.3 Responses to the question: “What sources do you typically consult to obtain the data and information you need for your work?” 175 10.4 Responses to: “Rate the usefulness of the following types of information (whether or not you currently use them) for determining the risks to public lands/natural resources from climate change” 175 10.5 Perceived hurdles by survey respondents 176 12.1 Disconnect between climate science and decision-makers 213 14.1 Common frames in world newspaper coverage of climate change or global warming, 2004–2009 246