— A LT E R R A WAG E N N G E N I The Cost of Policy Inaction The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target L. Braat & P. ten Brink (eds mm = ) - . . eco Fondazione G H K Em U33E UNEP WCMC EnricoMattel Alterra-rapport 1718, ISSN 1566-7197 *j(j>jsjtrmfi, EIEnnusvrtiiortpuoetneamm.n.iental CNeetshsermleanndtEAEgnevnicryonmental Witteveen-JBos 'II • PPoolliiccvy The Cost ofPolicy Inaction eco ALTERRA Fondazione MB WADENINGEN|UJ| Eni H K Enrico Mattel Institute*. f,£i European Netherlands Environmental Environmental AssessmentAgency Witteveen Policy Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2010 with funding from UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge http://www.archive.org/details/costofpolicyinac08braa The Cost ofPolicy Inaction The case ofnot meeting the 2010 biodiversity target L. Braat and P. ten Brink (eds.) with Bakkes J. KBolt Braeuer I. B. ten Brink A. Chiabai H. Ding H. Gerdes M.Jeuken M. Kettunen U. Kirchholtes C. Klok A. Markandya P. Nunes M. van Oorschot N. Peralta-Bezerra M. Rayment C. Travisi M. Walpole Alterra-rapport 1718 Alterra, Wageningen, 2008 ABSTRACT BHraaGteLr.de&sP.M.tenJeBurkiennk,, (Me.ds.K),etwtiutnhenJ.,BUa.kkeKsi,rcKh.hoBlotlets,, IC..BrKaleouke,r,AB..MtaernkBarnidnyk,a,A.P.ChNiaubnaeis,,H.M.Divnagn, Oorschot, N. Peralta-Bezerra, M. Rayment, C. Travisi, M. Walpole, 2008. The Cost ofPolicy Inaction, Thecaseofnotmeetingthe2010biodiversitytarget. Wageningen, Alterra,Alterra-rapport 1718. 312 biz.; 85 figs.;45 tables.; 140 refs. The study presents the social and economic costs to mankind as a consequence of the losses of biodiversity in past, present and future. The losses have been quantified and expressed in monetary terms by an international project team, which conducted the study for the European Commission's Directorate General Environment. The results of the study indicate that the biodiversity policy targets of the CBD and the EU (a significant reduction of the loss and halting the loss of biodiversity,respectivelyby2010)willnotbemet,withoutadditionalpolicies,notevenin2050. The study employed a so called Baseline scenario (the consequences of no new-policies social and economic development), which has the following characteristics:Population increases from ca 6 billion in 2000 to ca 9.1 billion in 2050; Economic growth at 2.8% peryear, a conservative growth scenario; Extra land for agriculture, implying additionalconversion ofnatural systems to agricultural land use; Over-exploitation and crashed fisheries in all oceans; no more ocean fish for human consumption or to feed aquaculture; Disappearance of1300 million hectares (1.5 x the land area of the United States ofAmerica) ofpristine natural systems to allowintensive agriculture, biofuels and asphalt. The physical consequences are loss ofecosystems services, the products which ecosystems deliver and the work ecosystems do, short term maximisation of food production at the cost of natural ecosystems and biodiversity, loss of regulating, buffer capacity of the world's ecosystems, for example climate regulation, flood control, water purification and soil quality maintenance and food andwatershortageswith associatedsocialdeprivation forbillionsofpeople The economic consequences are that the annual loss of biodiversity on land by 2050 will have increased to a sum total ofloss of ecosystem services equivalent to 14,000 billion Euro. This is equivalent to ca 7% ofprojected 2050 GDP. In addition, there are losses ofecosystems services of marine and coastalecosystemswhich are expected to run up to several thousands ofbillion peryear by 2050. The social consequences will be dramatic. In particular, in developing countries with great dependencyonecosystems services fordailylivelihood andsheresurvival. Keywords: biodiversity,economiccosts,ecosystemservice,globalstudy,scenario,policy ISSN 1566-7197 Thisreportisavailableindigitalformatatwww.alterra.wur.nl. Aprintedversionofthereport,likeallotherAlterrapublications,isavailable fromCerealesPublishersin Wageningen (tel: +31 (0)317466666). Forinformationabout, conditions,prices and thequickestwayof orderingseewww.boomblad.nl/rapportensetvice ©2008 Alterra P.O.Box47;6700AA Wageningen;TheNetherlands Phone: + 31 317484700; fax: +31 317419000;e-mail: [email protected] No part of this publication may be reproduced or published in any form or by any means, or storedin adatabaseorretrieval systemwithoutthewrittenpermissionofAlterra. Alterra assumes no liability for any losses resulting from the use of the research results or recommendations inthis report. [Alterra-rapport 1718/July/2008] 15 Contents Preface 1 Acknowledgements 14 Summary 1 1 Introduction 35 1.1 The urgencyofaddressingthe loss ofbiodiversity 35 1.2 The economics ofbiodiversityloss 37 1.3 The position ofthe COPI projectin the policylife-cycle 39 1.4 Objectives and outcomes ofthe study 40 1.5 Structure ofthe report 41 2 The COPI methodologyandValuation Database 43 2.1 Introduction 43 2.2 The role ofexistingframeworks in the COPI analysis 44 2.2.1 The OECD Baseline Scenario 44 2.2.2 The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework 45 2.2.3 Indicators ofBiodiversity change 46 2.2.4 Change in ecosystem services 47 2.2.5 Changes in economicvalue 49 2.3 The Valuation Database 50 2.3.1 Introduction 50 2.3.2 Methodology 51 2.3.3 The COPI Valuation Database - structure and available data 53 2.3.4 Values forecosystem services across biomes 54 2.3.5 Insights -strengths,gaps, methods forusingvalues, and needs 57 3 The Baseline Scenario 61 3.1 Introduction 61 3.2 The Baseline Scenario: Drivers 63 3.2.1 Population 63 3.2.2 Economic developments 64 3.2.3 Energy use 66 3.2.4 Agricultural production and consumption 68 3.2.5 Economic and social drivers ofchange in marine and coastal ecosystems 70 3.3 The Baseline Scenario: Pressures 70 3.3.1 Introduction 70 3.3.2 Land use 71 3.3.3 Climate change 73 3.3.4 The nitrogen cycle 75 3.3.5 Pressures which are notincluded in the GLOBIO model. 76 3.3.6 Pressures on the marine and coastal ecosystems 79 3.4 The Baseline scenario: policy landscape 79 3.4.1 Introduction 79 1 3.4.2 Policy landscape affectingtrends in biodiversityand ecosystem services: Pro-biodiversitypolicies 81 3.4.3 Policy sectorswith known negative effects on biodiversity 84 4 Changes in biodiversity 93 4.1 Introduction 93 4.2 Indicators ofbiodiversity change 95 4.2.1 Biodiversitymeasures and indicators 95 4.2.2 The Mean Species Abundance (MSA) indicator 96 4.3 Change in terrestrial biodiversity 100 4.3.1 Global developments 100 4.3.2 Biodiversitychange byworld region 102 4.3.3 Changes byBiome 105 4.4 Protected areas 108 4.5 Changes in marine biodiversity 109 4.5.1 Introduction 109 4.5.2 Global trends in Marine biodiversity 11 4.5.3 The current state ofmarine biodiversity 113 4.5.4 Marine biodiversity futures 114 4.6 Changes in coastal systems 118 4.6.1 Introduction 118 4.6.2 Trends in estuaries and salt marshes 119 4.6.3 Trends in mangroves 119 4.6.4 Trends in intertidal habitats, deltas, beaches, and dunes 120 4.6.5 Trends in coral reefs and atolls 121 4.7 Changes at the species level. 122 4.7.1 The Red list Indicator 122 4.7.2 Impacts ofinvasive alien species 125 5 Changes in ecosystem services 131 5.1 Introduction 131 5.2 The mechanisms behind changes in ecosystem services. 136 5.2.1 Provisioningservices 136 5.2.2 Regulating services 137 5.2.3 Cultural services 137 5.3 Ecosystem services, land cover and land use 141 5.3.1 Introduction 141 5.3.2 State and trends in the levels ofProvisioningServices 142 5.3.3 State and trends in Regulating services 144 5.3.4 State and trends in Cultural services 147 5.4 Trends in services in terrestrial biomes and landscapes 148 5.4.1 Introduction 148 5.4.2 The land biomes 148 5.4.3 Inlandwaters 149 5.4.4 Man-made landscapes 150 5.5 Trends in ecosystem services in marine systems 151 5.5.1 Provisioning services 151 5.5.2 Cultural services 152 5.5.3 Effects ofchanges in marine biodiversity 154 5.6 Trends in ecosystems services in coastal systems 154 5.6.1 Introduction 154 5.6.2 Mangroves and coral reefs 155 5.7 Non-linearity and collapse in ecosystem response to pressures 159 5.7.1 Introduction 159 5.7.2 Critical thresholds 159 5.7.3 Critical trends 160 5.7.4 Conclusions 161 5.8 Invasive Alien Species and ecosystem services 161 5.9 Economic and social aspects 163 6 The CostofPolicy Inaction—in Monetary terms 167 6.1 Introduction 167 6.2 Approach and coverage 173 6.2.1 The COPI analysis—core steps 173 6.2.2 COPI analysis—complementary areas 183 6.3 General COPI analysis ofland-use change 184 6.3.1 Main results 184 6.3.2 Losses across regions 187 6.3.3 Losses across biomes 190 6.3.4 Losses andgains perecosystem service type 194 6.3.5 The importance ofchange in qualityofthe ecosystems and ecosystem services 194 6.3.6 Key observations as to datainputs, methods, assumptions and interpretation 195 6.3.7 Insights on potential for the future 199 6.4 Thevaluation offorest ecosystem services 200 6.4.1 Introduction 200 6.4.2 Provisioningservices 201 6.4.3 Regulatingservices: carbon sequestration 201 6.5 Othervalues ofecosystem and biodiversityloss to complement the COPI land based analysis 202 6.5.1 Invasive alien species 202 6.5.2 Coral Reefs 208 6.5.3 Marine and coastal systems (based on MA, 2005b) 212 6.5.4 Freshwaterhabitats andwedands 214 6.6 Synthesis across values 216 7 Conclusions and recommendations 223 7.1 Introduction 223 7.2 Changes in Biodiversity 224 7.2 Notes on the methodologies 233 7.3 Recommendations: Policy 237 7.4 Recommendations: research 238 Annexes I TheValuation Database 241 II EconomicValuation ofForest Ecosystem Services: Methodologyand Monetary Estimates 263 III Invasive alien species and theirglobalimpacts 291